THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Oct 28th 2012

THE IRISH ECONOMY; DON’T FALSIFY THE FACTS – FACE THEM

A Reassuring Lie, starring Enda, Eamon, Micheal & Pat

Yet another empty statement from Angela Merkel and we're all supposed to jump for joy. Words, that's all, empty words; if the EU/ECB (which she seems to own) is going to give us our money back, then let them state precisely that, in simple straightforward terms. Of course there is no intention to repay a cent of Ireland's so-called 'legacy debt' but yet again we're fobbed off (the middle of next year at the earliest before anything is done, says Enda) and yet again we buy the rhetoric.

It's double-edged of course - the world is also buying the same kind of empty rhetoric from our own government. There is a version of the Irish economy which is being presented to the world by Enda, Eamon, Michael, Pat and the rest, and then there are the facts.

Let’s start with the debt/GDP headline figure for 2011 as reported by Eurostat in April of this year:

Gross Government Debt (GGD): €169.3bn

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):  €156.4bn

Ratio GGD/GDP: 108.2%

Now let’s look at the facts as they pertain to Ireland.

The GGD above does NOT include the government exposure to Nama debt, which Namawinelake reckons to be €27bn in government-guaranteed bonds (the reckoning is based on NAMA's accounts and the schedule of outstanding bonds updated on the NAMA.ie website); neither does the GGD total above include Irish government exposure to possible losses in the IBRC which, when the interest of €18bn on the Promissory Notes is taken into account (we pay that interest), could be to the order of €15bn.

On the other side of that coin, the Irish Examiner's Ann Cahill had a recent article in which the EU itself complained that the multinationals were skewing the figures in their claims for production in low-tax Ireland, which – by extension – means they are also skewing the figures for GDP (three times as productive as the EU average, twice as productive as the Germans - I mean we're good, but we're not that good!). Most economies have very little difference between GDP and the more pertinent GNP (Gross National Product) but this is not the case in Ireland. Here, because of the multinationals, there is a huge difference; our GNP for 2011 was €129bn.

Now do the calculation:

TRUE GGD: €202bn (est.)

GNP: €129bn

Ratio True GGD/GNP: 156.5%

Already we’re well past the point of no return but throw in a few other very relevant facts from the Irish economy.

BANK BONDS 
2013 –  €17.4bn; 2014 – €5.9bn; 2015 – €11.7bn 
GOVERNMENT BONDS 

2013 –  €6bn; 2014 – €8.2bn; 2015 – €3.6bn 

PROMISSORY NOTES 

2013 – €3.06bn;  2014 – €3.06bn;  2015 – €3.06bn

COMBINED TOTALS 
2013 –  €26.5bn; 2014 – €17.2bn; 2015 – €18.4bn

Have I mentioned projected budget deficits? 

UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS 

According to the government figures the current unemployment rate is around 14.8%; according to a source I would rather trust, economist Constantin Gurdgiev, the true figure is over 17%. 

Consider this then. To address all the above problems, while slashing spending the government is simultaneously increasing taxes, trying to squeeze additional revenue from a decreasing workforce in a situation where Ireland’s private debt overhang already exceeds that of any other European nation – nearly double that of Greece. Blood from a stone?

SUMMARY
How does all of this add up? Enda, Michael, Eamon and the rest of the government believe that by presenting the false figures, the false front, they will encourage foreign investors to come to Ireland, this famous FDI we’re all learning about in this crisis – Foreign Direct Investment. Meanwhile they are making things impossible for the existing indigenous businesses to continue to operate.

If we are to get ourselves out of this mess we need a bank debt writeoff. It’s that plain, it’s that simple. And right now, just for starters, we need to tell the ECB - we’re not paying another cent of Promissory Notes, not a cent. Not because we want to play hardball, not because we want to show that Ireland isn’t a country to be messed with, not even because of the absolute injustice of what’s been forced on us, but because we can’t pay. 

The bank debt burden is crushing Ireland, surely and not-so-slowly anymore. We need to protest, we need to let the world know the true story. In Ballyhea and Charleville we’ve been doing it for 86 weeks. This Saturday we’re heading up west, stopping off at Ennis (O’Connell Monument 9.15am), Galway (Bus Station 10.45am), Castlebar (Spencer Street 12.45pm), Sligo (O’Connell Street 2.30pm), Donegal (Lidl carpark 4.45pm). If you're anywhere around those areas, we’re asking for your support. Meanwhile, the next 12 bonds, the bonds we're told don't matter any more, starting with two bonds being paid today that total over €740,000,000.

Regards, Diarmuid O'Flynn

THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Oct 21st 2012

In the early hours of last Sunday morning, on my way back from the Gaelic Writers Association annual get-together and headed for the haven of Ballyhea for week 85 of our protest against the bank bailout, I was listening to playback on Newstalk. A segment came up from Friday morning's programme with Shane Coleman and Chris Donoghue, discussing current affairs with three eminent guests, focusing in particular on Budget 2013 and the likely cuts and taxes.

Among the five there was a general frustration at the way things are going, surprise at the lack of focused protest. Eventually someone suggesting that what the people needed was a rallying cause, something that affects us all and against which we could all vent our outrage.

A discussion then ensued on that point, the upcoming budget itself suggested as one such rallying cause. At this stage, and as is far too often the case lately, I found myself shouting at the radio. 'The bonds lads, the bloody bonds, the bloody bank bailout and the billions it has cost us and is STILL costing us!'

What is it about this bank debt? Why is it that even the most 'expert' commentators can ignore it when discussing Ireland's current dire situation? On my way up to Dublin the previous day I had listened to another such 'expert' proclaiming that the problem we have in Ireland is the budget deficit, that all this mess is our own fault and that we should stop complaining because no-one is going to give us money for nothing. It took an interjection from a Greek journalist who was also on the programme, on the end of a phone from Athens, to point out to this expert AND to the presenter (who was saying nothing) that the bank debt burden which had been imposed on Ireland was also a massive problem.

Why have we, as a people, so meekly accepted the imposition of this bank debt burden? According to the respected Namawinelake blog, €69.6bn is what we have so far sunk into the banks; that's over €15,000 for every resident - young and old, female and male, citizen and otherwise - of this state. All other impositions/cuts pale by comparison yet a protest against the cut of a local ambulance service, or the closure of a local A&E ward, will bring thousands to the streets, while we in Ballyhea and Charleville protest this odious burden almost on our own (kudos to the Anglo Not Our Debt group here).

No other nation would tolerate this, none. Stephen Donnelly TD recently produced a flyer in which he points out that per capita, the Irish bank bailout is costing us four times what the Greeks have been forced to pay, ten times what the Spanish have paid, 23 times the Portugese bailout and 198 times the Italian per capita figure, and Stephen was working off the old €13,956/capita figure for Ireland. In all those countries you have mass protests - here?

On Saturday week, October 27th, we're again taking the Ballyhea/Charleville protest on tour, up the west this time. Ennis, Galway, Castlebar, Sligo, Donegal town, then home again for our own regular Sunday morning march, in Charleville this Sunday. A long trek for us, a costly trek too with the bus-hire/leaflets etc. all coming from our own pockets. But we're going. Hopefully a few of you will join us along the way.