THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Oct 28th 2012

THE IRISH ECONOMY; DON’T FALSIFY THE FACTS – FACE THEM

A Reassuring Lie, starring Enda, Eamon, Micheal & Pat

Yet another empty statement from Angela Merkel and we're all supposed to jump for joy. Words, that's all, empty words; if the EU/ECB (which she seems to own) is going to give us our money back, then let them state precisely that, in simple straightforward terms. Of course there is no intention to repay a cent of Ireland's so-called 'legacy debt' but yet again we're fobbed off (the middle of next year at the earliest before anything is done, says Enda) and yet again we buy the rhetoric.

It's double-edged of course - the world is also buying the same kind of empty rhetoric from our own government. There is a version of the Irish economy which is being presented to the world by Enda, Eamon, Michael, Pat and the rest, and then there are the facts.

Let’s start with the debt/GDP headline figure for 2011 as reported by Eurostat in April of this year:

Gross Government Debt (GGD): €169.3bn

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):  €156.4bn

Ratio GGD/GDP: 108.2%

Now let’s look at the facts as they pertain to Ireland.

The GGD above does NOT include the government exposure to Nama debt, which Namawinelake reckons to be €27bn in government-guaranteed bonds (the reckoning is based on NAMA's accounts and the schedule of outstanding bonds updated on the NAMA.ie website); neither does the GGD total above include Irish government exposure to possible losses in the IBRC which, when the interest of €18bn on the Promissory Notes is taken into account (we pay that interest), could be to the order of €15bn.

On the other side of that coin, the Irish Examiner's Ann Cahill had a recent article in which the EU itself complained that the multinationals were skewing the figures in their claims for production in low-tax Ireland, which – by extension – means they are also skewing the figures for GDP (three times as productive as the EU average, twice as productive as the Germans - I mean we're good, but we're not that good!). Most economies have very little difference between GDP and the more pertinent GNP (Gross National Product) but this is not the case in Ireland. Here, because of the multinationals, there is a huge difference; our GNP for 2011 was €129bn.

Now do the calculation:

TRUE GGD: €202bn (est.)

GNP: €129bn

Ratio True GGD/GNP: 156.5%

Already we’re well past the point of no return but throw in a few other very relevant facts from the Irish economy.

BANK BONDS 
2013 –  €17.4bn; 2014 – €5.9bn; 2015 – €11.7bn 
GOVERNMENT BONDS 

2013 –  €6bn; 2014 – €8.2bn; 2015 – €3.6bn 

PROMISSORY NOTES 

2013 – €3.06bn;  2014 – €3.06bn;  2015 – €3.06bn

COMBINED TOTALS 
2013 –  €26.5bn; 2014 – €17.2bn; 2015 – €18.4bn

Have I mentioned projected budget deficits? 

UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS 

According to the government figures the current unemployment rate is around 14.8%; according to a source I would rather trust, economist Constantin Gurdgiev, the true figure is over 17%. 

Consider this then. To address all the above problems, while slashing spending the government is simultaneously increasing taxes, trying to squeeze additional revenue from a decreasing workforce in a situation where Ireland’s private debt overhang already exceeds that of any other European nation – nearly double that of Greece. Blood from a stone?

SUMMARY
How does all of this add up? Enda, Michael, Eamon and the rest of the government believe that by presenting the false figures, the false front, they will encourage foreign investors to come to Ireland, this famous FDI we’re all learning about in this crisis – Foreign Direct Investment. Meanwhile they are making things impossible for the existing indigenous businesses to continue to operate.

If we are to get ourselves out of this mess we need a bank debt writeoff. It’s that plain, it’s that simple. And right now, just for starters, we need to tell the ECB - we’re not paying another cent of Promissory Notes, not a cent. Not because we want to play hardball, not because we want to show that Ireland isn’t a country to be messed with, not even because of the absolute injustice of what’s been forced on us, but because we can’t pay. 

The bank debt burden is crushing Ireland, surely and not-so-slowly anymore. We need to protest, we need to let the world know the true story. In Ballyhea and Charleville we’ve been doing it for 86 weeks. This Saturday we’re heading up west, stopping off at Ennis (O’Connell Monument 9.15am), Galway (Bus Station 10.45am), Castlebar (Spencer Street 12.45pm), Sligo (O’Connell Street 2.30pm), Donegal (Lidl carpark 4.45pm). If you're anywhere around those areas, we’re asking for your support. Meanwhile, the next 12 bonds, the bonds we're told don't matter any more, starting with two bonds being paid today that total over €740,000,000.

Regards, Diarmuid O'Flynn

THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Oct 21st 2012

In the early hours of last Sunday morning, on my way back from the Gaelic Writers Association annual get-together and headed for the haven of Ballyhea for week 85 of our protest against the bank bailout, I was listening to playback on Newstalk. A segment came up from Friday morning's programme with Shane Coleman and Chris Donoghue, discussing current affairs with three eminent guests, focusing in particular on Budget 2013 and the likely cuts and taxes.

Among the five there was a general frustration at the way things are going, surprise at the lack of focused protest. Eventually someone suggesting that what the people needed was a rallying cause, something that affects us all and against which we could all vent our outrage.

A discussion then ensued on that point, the upcoming budget itself suggested as one such rallying cause. At this stage, and as is far too often the case lately, I found myself shouting at the radio. 'The bonds lads, the bloody bonds, the bloody bank bailout and the billions it has cost us and is STILL costing us!'

What is it about this bank debt? Why is it that even the most 'expert' commentators can ignore it when discussing Ireland's current dire situation? On my way up to Dublin the previous day I had listened to another such 'expert' proclaiming that the problem we have in Ireland is the budget deficit, that all this mess is our own fault and that we should stop complaining because no-one is going to give us money for nothing. It took an interjection from a Greek journalist who was also on the programme, on the end of a phone from Athens, to point out to this expert AND to the presenter (who was saying nothing) that the bank debt burden which had been imposed on Ireland was also a massive problem.

Why have we, as a people, so meekly accepted the imposition of this bank debt burden? According to the respected Namawinelake blog, €69.6bn is what we have so far sunk into the banks; that's over €15,000 for every resident - young and old, female and male, citizen and otherwise - of this state. All other impositions/cuts pale by comparison yet a protest against the cut of a local ambulance service, or the closure of a local A&E ward, will bring thousands to the streets, while we in Ballyhea and Charleville protest this odious burden almost on our own (kudos to the Anglo Not Our Debt group here).

No other nation would tolerate this, none. Stephen Donnelly TD recently produced a flyer in which he points out that per capita, the Irish bank bailout is costing us four times what the Greeks have been forced to pay, ten times what the Spanish have paid, 23 times the Portugese bailout and 198 times the Italian per capita figure, and Stephen was working off the old €13,956/capita figure for Ireland. In all those countries you have mass protests - here?

On Saturday week, October 27th, we're again taking the Ballyhea/Charleville protest on tour, up the west this time. Ennis, Galway, Castlebar, Sligo, Donegal town, then home again for our own regular Sunday morning march, in Charleville this Sunday. A long trek for us, a costly trek too with the bus-hire/leaflets etc. all coming from our own pockets. But we're going. Hopefully a few of you will join us along the way.

THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Oct 14th 2012

Letter to Catherine Mayer, editor of Time (Europe) magazine:

Dear Catherine,

After much head-scratching I have finally figured out the reasoning behind your Celtic Comeback article featuring Ireland's Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in our Gross National Debt - in fact this is increasing at an alarming rate, from €42bn (2007) to €72bn (2008) to €97bn (2009) to €110bn (2010) and then in the Kenny period, to €137bn (2011) and €151bn (June 2012) - that's an increase of €14bn in the first six months of this year alone;

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in our Gross Government Debt which also includes the Promissory Notes and is thus approx. €30bn greater than the above figure;

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in our Gross Government Debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, which has also risen dramatically over the last five years (and counting) - 25.0% (2007) to 44.5% (2008) to 64.9% (2009) to 92.2% (2010) and in the Kenny period, to 106.4% (2011) and still rising;

IT MOST CERTAINLY WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in our Gross Government Debt as a percentage of Gross NATIONAL Product which - as anyone with even a passing knowledge of Irish economic affairs knows - is a far more accurate barometer of economic trends in Ireland, where gross output is skewed by the multi-nationals. The GGD/GNP (€129bn) percentage at the end of 2011? How about 131%?

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in our bank debt burden. Far from the return of up to €50bn spoken of so bullishly in our media after the 'seismic shift' of the EuroZone leaders' June summit, we haven't had a red cent of the €70bn we've been blackmailed by the ECB into putting into our banks - in fact our bailed-out banks are CONTINUING to pay bonds, another €3bn+ paid since that June summit;

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in the odious Promissory Notes, €28.33bn of which still hangs over our heads. In fact in the same official Irish government report  from which all the above figures are taken, on page 20 is outlined the shameful manner in which the 2012 P Note of last March was dealt, Enda Kenny's government opting to transform what was disputed debt into a Sovereign Bond redeemable by the next generation of Irish people, in 2025, and at an interest rate more than double what was available should they have borrowed from the European emergency fund;

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in the unemployment level which has risen gradually and inexorably under Enda Kenny, now approaching the 15% mark; were the true figures known, however, the all-inclusive undisguised figures, it's at least a couple of percentage points above that;

IT WASN'T because of any significant reduction recently in the numbers leaving our shores - over 80,000 emigrated in the last 12 months;

IT WASN'T because Enda has decided to stop crushing the most vulnerable here at home and start to take on head-on the major vested interests domestically as he finally goes about closing the still yawning gap that is the budget deficit.

So what was it? I looked and looked for signs of your 'Celtic Comeback', Catherine Mayer, for any valid reason why Enda Kenny might grace the cover of your prestigious and widely read magazine, and finally there it was, staring me in the face - the answer is in the title. 'The Irish Answer.' Sure doesn't the world know we're masters of irony, of the contradictory word and statement. 'A fierce nice girl'; 'I will, yeah!'; or in your own case here, just as a mother or father might come home to view a mess left by the kids - 'Well isn't that just lovely!' Mind you, in our case the mess is being left for the kids by the fathers (especially) and by the mothers.

Ah Catherine, you had us all going there for a while. Aren't you the fine journalist now, all the same! Isn't it Enda's personal charisma (JFK isn't in it with him), his magnificent leadership qualities (Michael Collins, eat your heart out), his brilliance as an orator (Daniel O'Connell, move aside there), his courage in battle (didn't Angela feel the touch of his blade at that June summit - not a man to be messed with, our Enda) - isn't it all of that? All on his own isn't our Enda the Celtic Tiger reincarnated, for Godsake, The Celtic Comeback Kid himself! Good on ye, Catherine!

Here my friends, for your edification, the next 12 bonds. Ye'll notice Anglo featuring to the tune of about €308 (more actually, those currency conversion rates calculated over a year ago and we know where the euro has gone since then) but sure as Catherine Mayer might say, isn't that only small change to us these days?

THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Oct 7th 2012

It has come, it has gone, and barely a word about it in our major media outlets, the Oct 1st AIB €1bn unsecured unguaranteed bond - that's roughly €200 for every resident of this little republic of ours, many multiples of the Household Charge that (rightly) caused such outrage earlier this year.

There is one person however who merits special mention in this blog this week. I don't know Denise O'Toole but I do know this; I wouldn't swap her for 100,000 Marian Finucanes, for 200,000 Pat Kennys. Not a mention from our vastly overpaid national broadcasters Marian and Pat on that bond payment, but Denise O'Toole made up her own sign and stood outside the AIB in Sligo on Oct 1st. On her own. All day.

It was an act most patriotic, it was an act most heroic, and for all those of you out there who are nervous or afraid about making your own protest, let it be an act most inspirational.

Please know, we are being betrayed by our own. We are betrayed by our own government, who are colluding with the ECB in implementing a policy of private interests over public good, of the primacy of banks over people; we are betrayed by a national media who have abandoned their primary duty of objectively and honestly informing the people of what's happening.

That billion-euro bond last Monday was money we put into AIB in the last few years, every cent of every euro coming from us. It went to financial sharks who had bought elements of the bond for 75c in the euro only a few months ago, gambling that the bond would be paid in full. Even as they count their profit we count the cost, home-help hours cut for the old and the sick, frontline services slashed and burned.

That bond made it 18 billion our banks have so far paid out this year; check the tables below and you'll see that there are still two billion to be paid before year's end. In Jan of next year two bonds from Irish Life & Permanent in one day that add up to $3.5bn; in 2013, a total of over €17bn. And not a word.

Thank you Denise O'Toole, thank you.

THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Sep 30th 2012

In 1916 Frank Henderson, along with his brother Leo, was one of the few who stood with Pearse, Plunkett, MacDiarmada, MacDonagh, Ceannt, Clarke and Connolly in the GPO, one of the few who were willing to sacrifice their lives for the freedom and independence of Ireland.

On Monday of this week, Sep 24th 2012, and after a lifetime dedicated to his family, Niall Henderson, son of Frank Henderson, passed away. What Frank Henderson had risked his life to achieve Niall Henderson had built on, and thus had passed on to his daughter and to his three sons a better world.

Frank Henderson was a hero of the war, Niall Henderson a hero of the subsequent peace. He was a gentle and humourous man who worked all the hours God gave to provide for his family, to ensure for them a better life. A quintessential Dub, true-blue, he was a man who would do a full day's work, cycle home for his tea, then cycle back to several more hours of overtime, and still find time to maintain an impeccable garden, to do the dishes, to do more than his share at all times in any situation. He lived a frugal life, a moderate drinker even by moderate standards, yet still managed to ensure that his family enjoyed a holiday every year, that they lacked for nothing, all the while maitaining a cheery and positive outlook.

In truth, for all that Frank Henderson is the one who will be remembered by history (he rose to become Commandant of the Second Battalion of Dublin's Irish Volunteers, wrote a memoir, Frank Henderson's Easter Rising - Recollections Of An Irish Volunteer), the world has more need of men like Niall Henderson - hard-working, caring, sharing. How do I know so much about this extraordinary and exceptional man, how did I come to admire and respect him so much? I married his daughter.

Contrast those men with those who lead Ireland today. 

Where Frank Henderson risked his life to win our freedom and independence from an oppressive Empire, our last government - the Fianna Fáil/Green coalition - tamely and shamefully surrendered that freedom and independence to another oppressive new Empire. Our new Fine Gael/Labour coalition government has continued the obeisance of the old, fear paralysing their every thought and act, weasling their way from any and every confrontation with those they see as more powerful, all the while weaving their webs of public deceit, spinning their lies.

Where Niall Henderson sacrificed his own needs and radically curtailed his own lifestyle to provide for his wife and family, the members of this government and of this Oireachtas sacrifice their own people to preserve their own cosseted, comfortable lifestyles. Even as they cut and slash and tax, the new Land Agents implementing the diktats and demands of the new Empire, their own salaries/expenses/pensions/perks remain untouched by that new Empire, their cooperation bought and assured. The legacy they'll leave for future generations? Debt.

Those troublesome Promissory Notes? Why bother to dispute them when we can just take out a sovereign bond - as we did for the 2012 Note in March this year - for our children to pay, and for their children to pay, 40 years of 'war' reparations for a war we never waged. Confront the ECB and the EU on the money already extorted from us - what, us? No, we'll just hide behind Spain and Italy, see what terms they get, then come out from hiding and beg for similar terms - 'Please Sir, we've been good boys and girls'.

And so we are where we are. This coming Monday, Oct 1st, to absolutely no fanfare (ah, our media, our shameful media, the people abandoned), AIB will pay an unsecured unguaranteed bond of €1bn - our €1bn. It will be the 18th billion euro our banks will have paid this year, with still two billion to pay, another €17bn next year, but who's counting anymore?

THE DIRTY DOZEN w/e Sept 23rd 2012

On October 1st a €1bn unsecured unguaranteed AIB bond will be paid, that's almost a third of all the combined extra taxes/cuts proposed for Budget 2013, yet not a word about it in our media, the people abandoned to the market sharks.

Leo Varadkar can state on national television that the Promissory Note for 2013 can be dealt with as was the P Note of 2012, transformed from contentious debt to locked-in Sovereign Bond repayable in the late 2020s, and not even be challenged. It's official government policy now to bequeath debt that was never ours in the first place to future generations, a shameful legacy that goes unchallenged.

People are leaving in droves; those of us who stay will be paying bondholder bank debt not just next year, not just for the next ten years - for generations. And again, all this is fine - let's just beg for improved terms and conditions.

Our Finance Minister annouces that he's going to sit back and wait to see what kind of deal Spain can cut with the ECB, then hopes to piggy-back on that deal - this is how you negotiate on behalf of your people? 

Our Health Minister cuts 600,000 hours from home help for the elderly, every minute of every hour of which is precious to those individuals, even as our banks bleed billions of our money to their failed bondholders - these are the values of a society in which you want to live?

In Ballyhea and in Charleville we're now in week 82 of our protest against all the above but this week we're taking the show on the road. Today (Sunday, Sep 16th) we were in Ballyhea, Charleville, Adare and Limerick; tomorrow (Monday) we're in Nenagh, Roscrea, Portlaoise, Kildare, Newbrige, Naas, Bray and Dublin, full itinerary details here.

We finish up on Tue in Dublin with a march from the Garden of Remembrance to the Dáil, to demand that this term, this government gets off its knees in Europe, puts away the begging bowl, and insists on justice - end the bank bondholder bailout, burn the Promissory Notes, reprint the billions destroyed in the Notes of 2011 and 2012, cancel all bank-related debt to Europe, refund the €21bn taken from the National Pension Reserve Fund.

Time, Enda and Michael, to get tough.